New refrigerant, who dis?

Heat Pumps are getting a legally mandated upgrade. Refrigerants were one of the most requested topics in the last newsletter, and it’s a timely discussion.

Starting January 1, 2025, the EPA is prohibiting manufacture or import of R-410A based heat pump and air conditioning equipment as part of new restrictions designed to limit the use of Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). R-410A has been the de-facto refrigerant for residential heat pump and AC equipment for the past few decades, since its introduction in the late ‘90s.

This transition is great news for the planet. Refrigerants can significantly impact the climate, measured by their Global Warming Potential (GWP). R-410A has a GWP of 2,088 - this means that one ton of R-410A released into the atmosphere has an equivalent global warming effect of releasing 2,088 tons of CO2.

To put that in perspective, an average home heated by a gas furnace produces around 6,400 lbs of CO2 annually. A typical heat pump or air conditioning system might have around 8 lbs of R-410A refrigerant in it. If this were to leak, it would equal the climate impact of 2.6 years of gas furnace emissions! The new EPA guidelines require refrigerants used to be below 700 GWP, which is a step in the right direction.

Refrigerant “format wars”

This refrigerant transition has been a major point of focus for HVAC manufacturers over the past few years, and we’re nearing the culmination of their efforts to transition equipment. I won’t get into the chemistry, but this white paper provides a solid overview if you’re interested.

Unfortunately, the path forward isn’t straightforward. There are two major refrigerants vying to replace R-410A: R-32 and R-454B. Both are classified as A2L refrigerants, meaning they exhibit mild flammability, low toxicity, and low global warming potential. Although they share many similarities, the industry hasn’t aligned around one of them. Different manufacturers tout the benefits of the refrigerant they’ve chosen, trying to win the loyalty of contractors.

Some manufacturers even make equipment for both refrigerant types - for instance, Mitsubishi is rolling out an R-454B product line in the US, but also sells R-32 based systems globally.

Better products, or just a compliance play?

Are there any direct benefits to homeowners by having a new A2L heat pump installed in their home?

Don’t expect a dramatic efficiency boost—these refrigerants are more about compliance than performance gains at this stage. The big metrics to evaluate the efficiency of a heat pump are Heating Seasonal Performance Factor (HSPF2) and Seasonal Energy Efficiency Rating (SEER2). These two metrics quantify how efficiently a heat pump system can heat or cool your home respectively. A higher value means a system is more efficient.

I checked efficiencies of a few systems across brands. Gree’s primary R-410A ducted heat pump system is the Gree Flexx. This is being replaced by the Gree Flexx Ultra R32. For a 24,000 BTU system, SEER2 drops from 17 to 16, while HSPF2 slightly improves from 9 to 9.5.

Looking at a multi-zone ductless system, the Gree Multi R32 compared with its R-410A predecessor the Gree Multi GEN2, you can see that these values are identical. Both have a SEER2 of 21, and an HSPF2 of 10.

For a low-end single stage Bryant ducted system, when going from the 215S R-410A model to the 235SAN R32 model both SEER2 and HSPF2 marginally improved.

Ultimately, there isn’t a meaningful enough change in efficiency for customers to make buying decisions based on refrigerant type. In my discussions with manufacturers at a recent trade show, their primary focus in this generation of heat pumps was simply to ensure compliance with the new refrigerant standards; they plan to introduce product improvements in future iterations.

Practical Implications

I reached out to some California HVAC distributors, Slakey Brothers (a subsidiary of Gensco), and Baker Distributing (a subsidiary of Watsco, the largest HVAC distributor in the Americas) to get a read on pricing and availability for the new refrigerants and equipment.

First off, let’s talk about the refrigerants themselves. The new refrigerants are widely available across distributors - but they’re not cheap. I saw a roughly 100% price increase going from R-410A to R-454B, and a ~200% increase going to R-32. This increase in refrigerant cost may be counteracted by the fact that A2L equipment sometimes need a lower quantity of refrigerant to operate.

Interestingly, it seems like refrigerant manufacturers are trying to manage sticker shock by reducing the size of containers. R-410A was typically sold in 25lb containers, while R-454B and R-32 are being sold in 20lb containers.

How about the equipment itself? Major equipment manufacturers like Lennox and Carrier have indicated that they expect a 15-20% increase in equipment costs transitioning to the new A2L refrigerants. Are we actually seeing this in the market?

I was pleased to see that prices for a few model lines of outdoor units I surveyed were roughly unchanged from their R-410A counterparts.

However, this wasn’t the case with the indoor units. I noted a roughly 15% increase in indoor unit cost over equivalent R-410A models, in line with the manufacturer guidance. This cost difference is likely driven by the need for refrigerant detection systems that need to be installed on indoor units of A2L equipment, which identify refrigerant leaks and dissipate them by turning on the blower so that large quantities can’t accumulate.

Even though a few systems with new refrigerant have been on the market for years, the vast majority of equipment sold today is still R-410A based. The representative at Baker that I spoke with said to expect some common ducted and ductless heat pump product lines to become available with the new refrigerants Sometime between October to late November.

Near-term predictions

1) A potential sales slowdown among informed consumers. Some customers who are aware of the refrigerant transition will delay their heat pump purchases until new equipment is available. I suspect this won’t be particularly meaningful, because most customers are oblivious to the refrigerant type in their equipment and its significance.

2) Supply chain disruptions. Most distributors aren’t placing new purchase orders for R-410A equipment. Contractors prefer to work with the R-410A equipment that they’re familiar with, and won’t update their quoting software and price books until they absolutely have to. Expect shortages and inconsistent inventory levels as the transition progresses.

3) Misinformation and unintended bait-and-switch scenarios. There may be cases where customers are quoted for R-410A equipment but receive R-32 or R-454B units instead. Contractors may also sell leftover R-410A inventory without clearly disclosing it to their customers. They might also be slow in updating spec sheets and efficiency data that they communicate with their customers.

4) Price hikes. Even if the cost of the equipment doesn’t dramatically increase, contractors will likely seize the opportunity to push higher prices onto their customers.

5) An increase in installation errors and service calls. There are bound to be mixups, like pairing an A2L outdoor unit with an R-410A indoor unit. Reusing refrigerant line sets without flushing them first could lead to cross contamination. Technicians may also accidentally use the wrong refrigerant types, like adding R-32 to R-454B equipment. We may also have some initial pains with the refrigerant detection systems - their function is relatively simple, but there may be a learning curve.

Looking to the future

R-32 and R-454B are great next steps as we continue to improve how our heat pump systems operate. This is unlikely to be the last refrigerant transition we’ll ever face. It happened in the past, when Chlorofluorocarbons like R-12 were banned by regulators due to their impacts on the ozone layer. The replacement refrigerant R-22 was later also banned, and now R-410A as well.

The next step? Natural refrigerants like R-290 (propane) and R-744 (CO2) could be on the horizon. These refrigerants have a GWP of 3 and 1 respectively. There will be a whole host of challenges with these formulations though, as R-290 brings with it greater flammability and regulatory concerns, and R-744 requires high operating pressure which will drive cost into equipment designs.

If you’re a homeowner with R-410A equipment, don’t fret. There should be ample support going forward. Even R-22, the previous generation of refrigerant, is still available, although prices have increased as new manufacture is prohibited. After the manufacture of R-22 was banned, drop-in replacement refrigerants like R-422B also entered the market and ensured the continued serviceability of older systems. It’s likely that R-410A refrigerant or its equivalents will be available long past the lifespan of R-410A equipment.

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